What is allocation probability?
Allocation probability lets you discount tentative work by how likely it is to happen — so capacity plans and revenue forecasts reflect the real shape of your pipeline, not just a best case.
Written By Lauri Eurén
Last updated 1 day ago
Allocation probability is how likely a piece of tentative work is to actually happen, expressed as a percentage from 0% to 100%. You set it on tentative work, and it lets reports show probability-weighted hours and revenue — so pipeline that's only 30% likely can be counted as 30% rather than as if it were certain. Confirmed work always counts in full, whatever its probability.
Why it exists
Tentative Allocations represent work you expect but haven't committed to — pipeline, proposals, and deals still in play. Treating that work as if it were certain overstates both demand on your people and expected revenue. Probability lets you discount uncertain work by how likely it is, so capacity plans and revenue forecasts reflect the real shape of your pipeline instead of a best case.
Probability is not the allocation percentage
These are two separate numbers, and they answer different questions:
Allocation percentage is how much — the share of a Person's working hours the work would take (a 50% allocation is half their week).
Probability is how likely — the chance the work happens at all.
The percentage sets the planned hours. Probability then scales those hours, but only in reports where weighting is turned on.
How probability flows into reports
In the Capacity report and the Project Portfolio report, a display option under "Tentative work weighing" — "Weigh tentative items by probability" (or "Weigh tentative work by probability") — controls this:
Off (the default): tentative work shows at its full planned hours and revenue.
On: tentative work is scaled by its probability. Weighted hours = probability × planned hours, so a tentative Allocation at 60% probability contributes 60% of its hours.
Confirmed work is never scaled — it always counts in full, regardless of any probability value on it.
Setting the probability
You enter probability in the Probability field when you create or edit a tentative Position or Allocation in the Timeline. New tentative allocations can be prefilled with an organization-wide default, set in Settings — one default for tentative projects, and one for tentative allocations inside confirmed projects. Leaving a default blank means nothing is prefilled.
The CRM deal fallback
If a tentative Allocation has no probability of its own, weighted reports fall back to the probability of the project's linked CRM deal. A deal's probability defaults from its pipeline stage and can be overridden on the deal. This is a report-time fallback — the deal's probability is not copied onto the Allocation.